Monday, April 13, 2009

Predictions for Lok Sabha Polls in Arunachal???

Sinlung has predicted that both the seats in Arunachal would be swept by BJP in this Lok Sabha polls.

But, what's the basis of their post and prediction?

Wished they had given the basis of their poll prediction...Sigh.


  • wiian

    TOI had a more realistic prediction; 1 for Congress and 1 for BJP which I subscribe to. It should have been 2/2 for Congress if not for Rijiju's appeal.

  • AG

    I guess you are referring to this prediction by ToI. But they have predicted 2 for BJP which I guess was the basis of Sinlung's prediction ;)

  • wiian

    ok. That was the earlier assessment. The second chart was carried very recently on the paper.

    It will interesting to see who the third front will align with, post elections. Can Mayawati pull off a coup here. Even I want to be the PM of India. ;)

  • opo

    sorry for the irrelevent post.
    I have been reading ur blog anonimously,for some time.As i dont have pc,its dificult to continuously visit here to see the for my convenience,i have created SMS alert with the help of google sms channel[link][/link]
    Just thougth it may be helpful for other reader.
    sorry again for bad english.btw,i m from Hija.Which village are u from?

  • Daachan

    Its my prediction ;)

  • AG

    Guess, chances are there that some other person other than the projected PM candidates may also become PM and Mayawati is no exception :)

    I was thinking of creating sms alert and put in the link at AD but you beat me to that. BTW thanks for creating the sms channel and I would try to put the link as soon as the election is over 'cos I'm bit held up this election.

    And regarding my village....hmm..keep guessing...;)

    Your prediction seems quite plausible but knowing the electors of this state you don't know who would be elected till the last moment ;)Let's see if we have an aware voters this time.

  • opo

    I have deleted my sms channel.please create it as soon as possible.

  • dani sulu

    Well, now that dyes have been cast, what is the post poll prediction? How is mood like in Ziro in special and Arunachal in general?

  • buru

    There are people who say that Rijiju would have won even if he had slept through the campaign...but who knows Sanjoy may spring a surprise

    But more than that I am interested to see if Khandus challenge to resign if Rijiju obtains 3000 votes in Tawang constituency is made a reality by Rijiju..

  • AG

    @Dani Sulu,
    If to go by the wave, KR would lead over TS in urban and semi-urban areas but in the interiors TS may very well take the lead. So, let's wait and watch till the results are out ;)

    Well, I too am interested to see what would be the outcome of Khandu's challenge, with Rijiju so confident to ask Khandu to keep his resignation ready.

  • buru

    AG, I am told(by the grapevine) that in Non-nyishi areas at least, KR would get absolute majority irrespective of rural or urban..this includes Apatani, Aka, Sulung,Galo, Tagin, Hillsmiri and lower-Nyishi areas.

    Of course thats just hearsay, so take it with a pinch of slt.

  • AG

    With booth capturing incident turning the people away from Congress during this re-poll (as I was told) and with more than 60% turn out during the re-poll, should it to be presumed that KR is already a winner ;)

    But with very unpredictable voters in the state whose leaning can't be judged till the very last moment, you never know who would be the winner ultimately.

  • AG

    And so you are back here at Arunachal... Buru.

  • buru

    No I am not..but sources

  • AG

    It was just a wild guess :)

  • wz

    TS emerged stronger in my post poll analysis for some obvious reasons
    -not less than 90% panchayats from INC and panchayat leader pressurised to show their credentials to ruling govt.
    -high polling % in rural area (specially in interior area) some even upto 90%
    -polling % in urban area around jst around 50% in avrg
    -strong network of INC party worker in urban area (also in non nyishi area as Buru mentioned)who were geared upto a face saving act to counter wave in favour of KR

    TS to me lead KR by narrow margin of jst around 1000 votes.

    Well from east INC seem to win even as Gao and Borang share the home votes of Ninong. Some factors in favour of Ninong are
    -ruling INC govt
    -his clean image even after long stint in politics
    -not so charismatic sitting MP

  • wiian

    This Khandu vs KR news is interesting.. but do politicians ever keep their word?

  • AG

    Great post poll analysis. Let's wait & watch.

    I'm just waiting for KR to obtain 3000+ votes in Tawang to see if DK keeps his promise..;)

  • Anonymous

    Kiren in Arunachal WEST & Wanglet in Arunachal EAST. Both have the potentialities to show up in the Parliament.

  • mobin

    No way for the Takam Sanjay (congress)in Arunachal this time,may be his collegue ninong but Rijiju ....will definately win d poll.

  • buru

    it is said that Takam garnered quite a few votes all along the AP-assam border belt(even in non-nyishi areas) by harping on a theme that Rijiju failed to emphasise on-- solving the border dispute. So Sanjoy is also quite wily...

  • buru

    Looks like money and muscle is going to win the day ,in AP atleast...

    OTOH it may be a blessing in disguise as its better to be on the same side as at the Centre..

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