Thursday, October 1, 2009

Which party would form the next government in Arunachal Pradesh?

During the midst of CoSAAP’s agitation and seeing how the government was handling the situation, Arunachal Diary had run a poll asking it’s reader if at all the handling of CoSAAP’s agitation by the ruling Congress government would have any effect on Party’s prospect in the ensuing assembly election slated for October, 13th. The readers of Arunachal Diary voted wholeheartedly and total of 126 votes were polled, which is the second highest number of votes polled in any poll that was run in Arunachal Diary so far. So, what does the reader of Arunachal Diary felt? The result is given below (see snapshot):

[caption id="attachment_434" align="aligncenter" width="300" caption="Result of Poll on Would the present handling of CoSAAP's agitation by the Government affect their prospects in forthcoming Assembly Elections?"]Result of Poll on Would the present handling of CoSAAP's agitation by the Government affect their prospects in forthcoming Assembly Elections?[/caption]


88% of the voters felt that it would certainly affect Congress Party’s prospect in the ensuing assembly election, while fraction of the voters, precisely 6% felt that it would not have any effect on INC’s prospect and remaining voters were unsure if it would have any effect. The details of poll result can be found here.

With ‘anti-incumbency factor’ running high, the general notion that it would affect the prospect of ruling INC government in ensuing election felt somewhat true. Then there was this (once regarded) dynamic leader in Mr. Rijiju, who people thought would be the factor in unbalancing the equation of power in the Assembly Election slated for October, 13th. But with his joining INC shortly after the Lok Sabha election, it has left the people disillusioned. Nevertheless, the 'anti-incumbency' factor may play a major role this assembly election.

What is the present equation?

Indian National Congress (INC) has fielded 60 candidates of which 3 candidates viz., Present Chief Minister Dorjee Khandu (Mukto Constituency), sitting MLA Tsewang Dhondup (Tawang Town constituency) and debutant Jambey Tashi (Lumla constituency) has been elected unopposed.

Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) - 36 candidates.

All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) – 26 Candidates.

Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) – 18 Candidates.

Peoples’ Party of Arunachal (PPA) – 11 Candidates

Janata Dal (United) (JDU) – 3 Candidates.

Independent – 3 Candidates.

Which Party would form the next government?

With INC already securing 3 seats even prior to state goes to poll on October 13th and the party being the present ruling government, it is speculated that INC would garner enough seats from the rest 57 constituencies that they fielded their candidate from, so as to form the next government. However, the equation may be disturbed by other parties and by the 'anti-incumbency factor' running high among the general masses. The result will only be known only when the state goes to poll on October 13th and poll results declared.

In the meantime, Arunachal Diary has started a new poll (see sidebar). Do vote in and let's know which political party do you feel would form the next government.


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